Immerse yourself in the gridiron drama with the free Action Network app, your gateway to expert picks, live odds, bet tracking, and more. The echoes of Trevor Lawrence's frustration reverberated worldwide when the Jaguars succumbed to the Bengals on a Thursday night a few weeks back, marked by Lawrence's helmet-slamming display. A high-ankle sprain diagnosis couldn't sideline the resilient star quarterback for long, as he returned the following week. However, the Jaguars' fortunes took a hit with consecutive losses, thrusting them into the throes of a fiercely contested AFC playoff race.
As Jacksonville gears up for what could be their most formidable challenge this season, a "Sunday Night Football" clash awaits against the current AFC frontrunners, the Baltimore Ravens. While I remain cautious about picking a side in this matchup, a player prop has piqued my interest on the Jaguars' end—Calvin Ridley. The wide receiver is hitting his stride, and his current receiving yards prop stands at 46.5.
The absence of Christian Kirk due to injury has created a void in the Jacksonville offense. Despite efforts to utilize Parker Washington in Kirk's role, the burden—and targets—have shifted noticeably towards Ridley and Evan Engram. Ridley's return to the field earlier this season made an immediate impact—eight receptions, 101 yards, and a touchdown. However, he faced challenges, with five of the next six games limiting him to 40 yards or fewer. Recently, though, Ridley has showcased glimpses of his exceptional potential. In the last four games, he has surpassed 50 yards three times, securing three touchdowns and averaging nine targets per game.
The Ravens boast a formidable defense, ranking second in DVOA against the pass and ninth against the run. Despite this, their recent struggles against WR1s are evident. Cooper Kupp and Keenan Allen both eclipsed 100 yards, and even Amari Cooper managed 98. Notably, they sit 17th in DVOA against the WR1 position. Safety Kyle Hamilton's potential absence due to a sprained MCL further complicates matters for the Ravens, potentially opening avenues for deep shots to Ridley. Adding to the intrigue, the Ravens employ man coverage at the 11th-highest rate in the NFL. With Kirk on the injured reserve, Ridley emerges as the next man up in terms of success against man coverage, boasting a 2.01 yards-per-route-run rate in such situations. The stage is set for a captivating showdown, where Ridley could be the x-factor in Jacksonville's bid to upset the current No. 1 seed.
Facing him on the opposite end of the field will be Zay Jones, but his struggles in one-on-one situations, evident in his 0.73 yards-per-route-run (Y/RR), raise questions about his effectiveness. In the realm of wide receivers, volume reigns supreme, and the absence of Kirk became glaringly apparent last week, propelling Ridley into the spotlight with a substantial uptick in targets—he concluded the game with an impressive 13.
The Jaguars find themselves in yet another potential negative game script, a scenario that has plagued them in their struggles to establish the run throughout the season. Ridley, with an average depth of target at a substantial 14.1 yards, could easily surpass the set yardage with just three receptions. Anticipating a return to his usual output of 8-10 targets, Ridley is poised to shoulder the offensive load once again under the Sunday night lights.
In the aftermath of Kirk's departure, this matchup presents a golden opportunity for Ridley to emerge as a pivotal player for Jacksonville, especially in the midst of a fiercely contested playoff race. With the deck stacked against them, Ridley becomes a linchpin in the Jaguars' bid to stay afloat. Betting on the instincts of a seasoned gambling enthusiast, I advocate for backing Ridley to exceed his receiving yards prop of 47.5 on Sunday night. It's a strategic play that aligns with the narrative of Ridley's increased role and the circumstances surrounding Jacksonville's quest for postseason relevance.
In conclusion, as the Jaguars brace for a challenging Sunday night clash against the formidable Baltimore Ravens, all eyes are on Calvin Ridley to fill the void left by Christian Kirk's absence. Last week's surge in targets, coupled with Ridley's ability to thrive in one-on-one situations, positions him as a key asset for Jacksonville in a crucial moment of the season.
The Jaguars, grappling with negative game scripts and intermittent struggles in establishing a consistent running game, are leaning heavily on Ridley's prowess with an impressive average depth of target. With expectations of 8-10 targets, Ridley's role is pivotal in maintaining Jacksonville's competitiveness in the tightly contested playoff race.
In the aftermath of Kirk's departure, this matchup serves as a defining moment for Ridley to prove his mettle and elevate his team's chances. The strategic move to back Ridley exceeding his receiving yards prop (47.5) reflects not just a calculated bet but an acknowledgment of the dynamic circumstances at play. As the curtain rises on Sunday night, Ridley stands poised to be a game-changer, and betting on his potential impact aligns with the narrative of a resurgent playmaker stepping up when it matters most.